Make a Prediction

Make a Prediction

"Any prediction that is not 0% or 100% can't be wrong solely because the most likely future doesn't unfold...long shots hit some of the time.  When we think probabilistically, we are less likely to use adverse results alone as proof that we made a decision error, because we recognize the possibility that the decision might have been good but luck and/or incomplete information (and a sample size of one) intervened." - Annie Duke

Inspired by Phil Tetlock’s research, Predictions allow you to record your thoughts about future events and assign dates and probabilities around the outcome. This is a valuable tool to track and score multiple metrics beyond just the share price. Ideally, probabilistic predictions allow you to untangle luck versus skill and calibrate your confidence versus competence. It’s a principle habit of Superforecasters everywhere.

To make a prediction:

1. Click the add button at the home journal and select “Make a Prediction”.

2. Record the details of the prediction.

3. Click Post.

Prediction Made!

Once you post the journal entry, the prediction will be captured and tagged to the idea entered.